Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Climate Change Debate?

The problem with the climate change debate is exactly that – it has become a debate, not a scientific investigation. The political concerns have co-opted the facts so much that it is actually very difficult to work out what the scientific opinion really is. If the scientific community appear to have closed ranks about the issue, it is only because they are under siege by people who do not wish to accept the current conclusions.
The scientific process does not lend itself to definitive answers. There are always arguments for and against every theory. But, as more and more evidence becomes available the most likely answer becomes more and more apparent. Boing Boing recently had a very good summary of this concept. This is what has been happening over the last few decades and there is now general consensus amongst the experts is for anthropogenic climate change. Of course there are counter arguments and experiments that show otherwise, but they are in the minority and the supporting evidence is being eaten away.
If 50% of economists - who almost always get predictions wrong - claim that there will be another financial crisis, the world scrambles to take action. If 95% of scientists - who commonly get things right - claim there is anthrogenic global warming, everyone wants to ask the last 5% about the alternatives.
However, the media love an argument, the politicians don’t want to make unpopular decisions and people don’t like to accept blame. So the question is made to appear to still be open when, in reality, the only remaining points are the finer details rather than the fact of it.
As Feynman said “Reality trumps public opinion every time”. Science is NOT democratic. We can't have a vote to say the world is round or that evolution exists. Human belief on the matter is irrelevant. And the most people commenting are simply not qualified to have an opinion in any case. You need to have spent many years and a great deal of thought to earn the right to have a say.

On the other hand, the question of what to do about it IS a matter of public debate. It should be discussed at all levels and appropriate responses considered by everyone since everyone is involved. But don't attack the science just because you don't want it to be true.